Scientists and researchers who need to keep track of a population employ procedures such as
Mark and Recapture Sampling to provide them with a reasonable estimate of the population size.
This method consists of a number of individuals being captured and marked, then released back into their habitat. After an appropriate length of time, usually a few days or weeks, traps are laid out and another 'sample' of the population is captured. Of these, the number of recaptured individuals who had been captured in the first batch (the ones that were already marked) are counted, and the following formula is used to estimate the size of the entire population:
In this lab, each group was given a bag of pasta, which served as the population, and was instructed to estimate the number of pasta in the bag by using the mark - recapture method.
My group, consisting of Jordan, Katherine, and myself, began by "capturing" a sample of pasta, counting it, and marking all the individuals (we decided to use the letter 'A' as our tag).
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Capturing the pasta |
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A letter 'A' represented the marked individuals |
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Shaking the bag to ensure that the pasta was
evenly distributed |
Once this was accomplished, the marked individuals were released and allowed to mingle with the rest of their population (we had to help them out a bit by shaking the bag).
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Capturing the second sample with closed eyes |
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Doing the calculations |
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The second sample was then captured (without looking), and the number of marked individuals were counted along with the total size of the second sample. Calculations were made to estimate the total number of pasta in the bag.
We performed three trials, using a different marking each time so that we wouldn't count individuals captured in previous trials. We then averaged the results of the trials, and began the arduous task of counting all the pasta in the bag to determine how accurate we were. One of the trials, the first one, was quite obviously an outlier: The estimated population size was 920, a number which was obviously too large to be possible. The reason this occurred was most likely that out initial sample size was too low (we only captured 20 individuals in the first sample). Sure enough, our next two trials, for which we captured significantly more pasta, resulted in numbers which were closer together and more reasonable (585 and 552). Using these numbers and the real population size, which was counted to be 558, we found our percent error with the outlier and without. With the outlier, our error rate was 23% and without, it was only 2%. This shows that the mark and recapture method can be a very efficient and accurate tool for scientist to use (when carried out correctly).
There were a few factors which could affect the accuracy of the experiment. One that we observed in our own experiment was that the sample size for one of the trials (the first one) was too small, and we were only able to recapture one individual, leading to a large discrepancy between the other trials. Other groups had used the same pasta bags for their own experiments in previous years. It's possible that the marking we chose was identical to a marking used by another group that we were not aware of, meaning that we would capture more marked individuals in the second sample, throwing off the results of the experiment.
In the real world, mark and recapture isn't as easy of efficient as this lab, because we were working in a closed system-one which was controlled and less prone to unforeseen problems. When researchers are working with animals, a whole new set of problems emerge. The one which likely affects the results most is mortality; marked individuals dying or being killed by predators or even poachers, depending on the species. This source of error becomes more prominent over time. Additionally, tags which weren't applied properly may fall off, and animals with the intelligence to do so will likely try to remove the tags. In some cases, the mark might distinguish the individual from other members of its species, possibly compromising its ability to avoid predators - this would lead to the marked individuals being preyed upon more than their unmarked counterparts.
In order to improve the design of this experiment, I would make the sample sizes exact (the same number of individuals marked and recaptured for each trial). This would make the results more accurate and add more control to the experiment.